Epidemiological insights into Nipah virus: A sir model perspective

M. Muthuvel *

PG and Research Department of Mathematics, Bishop Heber College (Autonomous) Tiruchirappalli-620017, Affiliated to Bharathidasan University, India.
 
Review
International Journal of Science and Research Archive, 2024, 13(02), 1322–1330.
Article DOI: 10.30574/ijsra.2024.13.2.2242
Publication history: 
Received on 07 October 2024; revised on 18 November 2024; accepted on 21 November 2024
 
Abstract: 
The Nipah virus outbreak in Kerala, India, in 2024 presented significant public health challenges, necessitating an in-depth analysis of its transmission dynamics and the effectiveness of response measures. This study employs the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) epidemiological model to simulate the outbreak, focusing on key parameters such as transmission and recovery rates. The model reveals that the outbreak peaked around Day 10, with a maximum of approximately 631 infected individuals, highlighting the rapid spread of the virus. However, timely public health interventions, including contact tracing, isolation, and community engagement, effectively curtailed transmission, resulting in a swift decline in infected cases and a significant recovery rate. By Day 100, nearly the entire population had either recovered or remained uninfected, underscoring the success of containment efforts. This study emphasizes the critical role of proactive health strategies in managing infectious diseases and provides valuable insights for future preparedness against zoonotic outbreaks. The findings highlight the necessity of continuous monitoring and community involvement in strengthening public health infrastructure to mitigate the impact of similar outbreaks in the future.
 
Keywords: 
SIR Epidemic Model; Nipah virus; Disease
 
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